Bitcoin Retail Investors Remain Cautious, FOMO Levels Unreached

In a recent update, Ki Young Ju, the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, shared his insights on the current retail investor sentiment in the Bitcoin market. According to Young Ju, Bitcoin retail investors have not yet reached fear of missing out (FOMO) levels, despite the asset’s recent decline below $92,000.

Indicator Remains Neutral

Young Ju’s observation is based on the surge in trading count across all exchanges, tickers, and markets (spot and futures). As of November 25, the indicator remained neutral, a position it has maintained since April when BTC traded around $64,000. This suggests that retail investors are not yet in a state of panic or excessive excitement.

Comparison to Previous Market Cycles

During the last bull market, retail FOMO peaked in January 2021 when Bitcoin surpassed $30,000, driving its price to an all-time high of $69,000. In contrast, despite Bitcoin nearing $100,000 just last week, analysts observe that retail investors have not yet entered the market in vast numbers. This suggests that the current market environment is different from the previous cycle.

Macro Environment Contributes to Extended Decline

In a note early Tuesday, QCP Capital analysts stated that the crash from recent highs is likely to extend given the macro environment. They highlighted the approaching U.S. holidays and major economic data releases, such as tonight’s FOMC minutes and tomorrow’s PCE report, which lack momentum to push #BTC toward $100K.

Bullish Sentiment Remains

Despite the declines, which are not “panic-worthy,” and BTC remains bullish. This is despite the millions of dollars liquidated in the past 24 hours and spot Bitcoin ETFs’ $438 million ETF outflows on November 25. MicroStrategy also bought $5.4 billion worth of BTC, indicating continued support for the asset.

Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Supports Bullish Sentiment

The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index also supports a bullish sentiment, with a reading of 77 indicating extreme greed as the price hovered below $92,000. This indicates that investors are still optimistic about the asset’s price.

Potential Bounce Ahead

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted a potential bounce to $95,000 or higher, citing a buy signal from the TD Sequential indicator.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Bitcoin retail investors remain cautious, and FOMO levels are unreached. The indicator remains neutral, and the macro environment contributes to an extended decline. However, the asset remains bullish, and the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index supports this sentiment. A potential bounce ahead is possible, given the buy signal from the TD Sequential indicator.

Predictions

Based on the analysis, the following predictions can be made:

• Bitcoin retail investors will remain cautious, and FOMO levels will not be reached in the near future.
• The asset will continue to decline, but the decline will not be “panic-worthy.”
• The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index will remain in a bullish range, indicating extreme greed.
• A potential bounce ahead is possible, with a target price of $95,000 or higher.
• The macro environment will continue to influence the market, with major economic data releases and U.S. holidays contributing to the extended decline.

Recommendations

Based on the analysis and predictions, the following recommendations can be made:

• Investors should remain cautious and not enter the market in vast numbers.
• Investors should continue to support the asset through purchases, as seen with MicroStrategy’s $5.4 billion worth of BTC.
• Investors should monitor the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index and adjust their investment strategy accordingly.
• Investors should be prepared for a potential bounce ahead and adjust their strategy to take advantage of it.

By following these recommendations, investors can make informed decisions and adjust their investment strategy to take advantage of the current market environment.