Analysis of Toncoin Price Formation and On-Chain Data
The Toncoin (TON) price has been under pressure, declining by more than 35% from its highest level last year, despite the cryptocurrency market’s rebound. However, on-chain data reveals a different story, with the number of daily on-chain wallet activations rising to 185,395, the highest increase since December 13. This surge has brought the total number of on-chain activated wallets to over 38.8 million. Additionally, the number of TON tokens burned each day has increased to almost 12,000, the highest level since November last year.
The TON ecosystem has also seen a rise in fees collected, with a total of 23,790 TON, the highest gain in almost a month. Despite these positive on-chain metrics, the Toncoin price has been negatively impacted by the poor performance of its top ecosystem tokens, such as Hamster Kombat, Notcoin, and Catizen, which have all plunged by double digits.
Technical Analysis and Insights
Crypto analysts, such as Darkfost from CryptoQuant, are broadly bullish on the TON price. They note that the annualized realized volatility has dropped below the 0.25 threshold, which is often followed by market reversals. Another analyst points out that the Normalized Risk Metric is nearing a low-risk period, which is also typically followed by significant price swings.
The daily chart shows that Toncoin price is forming a symmetrical triangle, with its upper side connecting the highest swings since June 15 and the lower side linking the lowest levels since September last year. This triangle started forming after the price surged from below $1 to a high of $8.30, indicating a potential bullish pennant pattern. If this pattern holds, the coin is likely to experience a bullish breakout in the next few weeks or months, with an initial target of its all-time high of $8.30, representing a 55% increase from the current level.
Predictions and Future Outlook
Based on the analysis of on-chain data and technical insights, it is likely that the Toncoin price will experience a significant increase in the near future. The bullish pennant pattern, combined with the low volatility and risk metrics, suggests that the price is poised for a breakout. If the price breaks out above the upper trendline of the triangle, it could reach its all-time high of $8.30, representing a substantial gain for investors.
However, it is essential to note that the performance of the top ecosystem tokens, such as Hamster Kombat, Notcoin, and Catizen, could continue to impact the Toncoin price. If these tokens continue to decline, it could put downward pressure on the Toncoin price, potentially delaying or preventing the predicted breakout.
In conclusion, the Toncoin price is forming a bullish pennant pattern, and on-chain data suggests that the TON ecosystem is healthy, with increasing wallet activations, token burns, and fees collected. While there are risks associated with the performance of top ecosystem tokens, the technical analysis and insights from crypto analysts suggest that the Toncoin price is likely to experience a significant increase in the near future.
Key Statistics:
- Toncoin price: $5.35
- Decrease from highest level last year: 35%
- Daily on-chain wallet activations: 185,395
- Total on-chain activated wallets: over 38.8 million
- TON tokens burned per day: almost 12,000
- Fees collected in the TON ecosystem: 23,790 TON
- Potential price target: $8.30 (55% increase from current level)
